Cloud Hype

I guess I first heard the term "cloud computing" around about three years ago, but in the last six months, just about everything seems to be tagged "cloud". My old colleagues at Gartner have a long standing model for this phenomenon called the "Hype cycle". It runs through five phases from a technology "trigger", through to a "Plateau of productivity". Right now, cloud computing must be right at the top of the "Peak of inflated expectations"!

What follows is peak this the "Trough of disillusionment" as organisations dive into "cloud" technology and  discover half of what's out there is only superficially "cloud", and lots of things don't really deliver. We're already seeing lots of debates on what really constitutes "cloud", which marks the start of the decline.

The model of delivering discrete applications over the web has been around for over ten years - variously called application service provision (ASP)  or software as a service (SaaS). Those applications that have developed and survived over this time have jumped on the "cloud" bandwagon. Expect them to jump off again as the term becomes seriously devalued. They will go back to selling the benefits of their applications, and its delivery mechanism (over the web), and all talk of cloud will disappear from their vocabulary.

Meanwhile, large organisations are adopting the flexible processing power models that have also been labelled "cloud". Most charities will only run into this as their web hosting providers adopt it. Even then it will be pretty transparent, except perhaps in some of the contractual terms.

Perhaps the most interesting developments to survive and thrive will be the ability to access many more applications from anywhere on the web (or mobile device), and the advent of the "app" model of downloading applications when I need them to run on my particular platform (mobile or static). There are some gamechangers in there that will have their own hype cycles.

Anyway, for me, the term "cloud computing" is dead for any useful purpose.